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Global Macro Highlights

U.S. Inflation Accelerates for the Third Consecutive Month

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. headline inflation accelerated to 4.2% YoY in May 2026 from 3.8% in April, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and a three-year high. On a month-on-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5%, slightly lower than April’s 0.6%, suggesting that monthly momentum is easing marginally while overall price levels continue to trend higher.
Looking ahead, we expect U.S. inflation to remain elevated in the near term, primarily due to the continued pass-through of higher energy costs into transportation and other consumer-facing prices. Although core inflation remains relatively stable, the recent acceleration in headline inflation suggests that energy- related pressures are likely to keep overall price growth above the Federal Reserve’s comfort level in the coming months.

China Inflation Stable as Producer Prices Surge on Rising Global Costs

In China, consumer inflation remained stable at 1.2% YoY in May, showing that domestic demand is gradually improving but still relatively soft. Consumers remain cautious in their spending, especially in food and housing. Food prices fell again in May by 0.9% YoY, mainly due to weaker pork and grain prices, while housing costs remained subdued.
Meanwhile, producer inflation rose sharply to 3.9% YoY from 2.8% in April, its highest level in nearly four years- July 2022, driven largely by rising energy, metal, and raw material costs linked partly to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

South Africa Records Sixth Straight Quarter of Economic Growth

According to Statistics South Africa, the economy expanded by 0.5% QoQ in Q1:2026, increase and improving on the revised 0.4% growth recorded in Q4:2025. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of economic expansion, with nine of the ten industries recording growth during the quarter.
Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to remain positive but moderate, supported by resilient domestic demand and improved electricity availability. However, rising fuel costs, softer global demand, and persistent bottlenecks in manufacturing and logistics could weigh on growth momentum in subsequent quarters.

OPEC+ Boosts Output Again as Iran-Driven Geopolitical Risks Dominate Oil Outlook

OPEC+ has approved another 188,000bpd production increase for July, marking the fourth consecutive monthly hike and bringing total additions since April close to 600,000bpd.
The direction of the oil market will depend more on developments around Iran. and the Strait of Hormuz. If tensions worsen or shipping disruptions persist, crude prices could remain above USD100/bbl and rise further during periods of market panic.

Global Equities Market ­– Sectorial Performance

Weekly Performance of Sectorial Indices

Domestic Events

Nigeria Trade Surplus Surges 340.9% in Q1:2026 on Strong Exports and Lower Imports

Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of NGN7.5trn in Q1:2026, an increase of 340.9% from the previous quarter, driven by stronger export earnings and a significant decline in imports. Total exports rose by 11.6% QoQ to NGN21.2trn, supported largely by higher crude oil exports, which remained the country’s largest export category and accounted for over half of total export receipts.
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s trade balance is expected to remain firmly in surplus, supported by lower refined petroleum imports and stable crude oil export earnings.

We expect the oil sector to sustain its growth trajectory, supported by improved security measures, faster reactivation of inactive wells, the commencement of FSO Cawthorne operations, and continued natural gas infrastructure developments, notably the completion of the OB3 pipeline’s River Niger crossing. Although, a high base effect from Q2:2025 is likely to moderate growth for oil sector in Q2:2026. On the non-oil side, we expect stronger growth momentum in Q2 2026, particularly on the back of sustained investment in the ICT sector, supported by rising data consumption, expanding broadband penetration, and continued digital adoption.

Fixed Income Opportunities for the week