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Global Macro Highlights

U.S. Inflation Steadies at 2.7% in July, Core CPI Climbs to 5-Month High

According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, U.S. CPI held at 2.7% YoY in July, rising 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% in June), driven mainly by shelter costs (+0.2%). Food inflation stayed at 2.9% YoY, while energy prices fell further (-1.6% YoY, -1.1% MoM) on weaker gasoline and crude oil prices. Vehicle prices were mixed, with used cars up 4.8% YoY amid supply shortages. Tariffs also lifted household furnishings (+0.7% MoM) and apparel (+0.1% MoM), pushing core CPI to 3.1% YoY, its highest in five months. We expect headline inflation to remain steady near term, supported by softer energy and food prices, though tariff-related pressures pose an upside risk that could temper Fed rate-cut expectations.

UK GDP Growth Slows to 0.3% in Q2 2025 on Tariff and Stamp Duty Pressures

According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy grew 0.3% QoQ in Q2:2025, slowing from 0.7% in Q1, weighed by April’s higher stamp duty and uncertainty over new U.S. tariffs. Growth was driven by services (+0.4% QoQ), particularly computer programming and consulting (+4.1%). Construction rose 1.2%, while production fell 0.3%, partly offset by a 0.3% rise in manufacturing. Looking ahead, growth is expected to remain modest as trade-related uncertainty continues to dampen investment, especially in exports outside the UK-US economic prosperity deal.

Global Equities Market

Weekly Performance of Major Global Indices

Domestic Events

Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 21.9% in July, But Monthly Pressures Persist

According to the NBS, Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 21.88% YoY in July 2025 (vs. 22.22% in June), driven by a decline in core inflation (21.33% vs. 22.76%). Food inflation, however, rose slightly to 22.74% YoY (from 21.97%). On a monthly basis, headline inflation accelerated to 1.99% (vs. 1.68%), while food inflation moderated to 3.12% (vs. 3.25%) on lower prices of key staples. Looking ahead, improved food supply from the green harvest, Naira stability, and softer energy costs should support further disinflation, though persistent MoM pressures suggest the MPC will maintain a cautious policy stance.

Dangote Refinery Cuts PMS Price to ₦820/Litre, Rolls Out CNG Trucks

Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut the ex-depot price of PMS by NGN30 to NGN820/litre effective August 12, 2025. It also plans to roll out 4,000 CNG-powered trucks from August 15 to enhance nationwide distribution. This decision, which comes against the backdrop of unpredictable global crude prices and a more stable Naira, is likely to help lower domestic fuel prices while improving supply efficiency.

This adjustment should provide relief for both businesses and consumers, while helping to keep inflationary pressures in check.

FG Unveils NGN4tn Power Sector Debt Refinancing Plan to Boost Stability & Growth

The federal government has approved a phased plan to refinance NGN4.0tn in power sector liabilities via bonds and other long-term instruments, aiming to stabilize the struggling electricity industry. The debt, owed to 27 GenCos for invoices from 2015–2023, has hindered investment and fueled outages. Restructuring should unlock capital flows, support sector reforms, and over time, lower manufacturing costs, boost productivity, and strengthen economic growth.

Presco Expands West African Footprint with GOPDC Buy, Eyes SOP Acquisition & Rights Issue

Presco, having completed the acquisition of a 100% stake in Ghana Oil Palm Development Company Limited (GOPDC), is now pursuing the proposed acquisition of Saro Oil Palm Limited (SOP), with plans to raise capital through a Rights Issue to partly finance these transactions and also finance existing debt obligations. GOPDC, formerly a subsidiary of SIAT SA, adds over 35,000 tonnes in annual palm and kernel oil capacity and a 21,000-tonne storage facility, significantly expanding Presco’s scale. If the SOP acquisition is completed, the enlarged operations are expected to further improve cost efficiency, enhance pricing power, and deepen market penetration, positioning Presco to capture the growing regional demand for edible oils across West Africa.

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