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Global Macro Highlights

US Job Market Weakens Further, Fueling Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The US labour market weakened further in August, as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 versus 80,000 expected. June was revised to show the first net job loss since 2020 (-13,000), while unemployment climbed to 4.30%, the highest since 2021. Hiring was limited to healthcare and social assistance, with wage growth easing to 3.70% YoY and long-term unemployment edging up. Structural pressures, including protectionist trade policies, immigration restrictions, public-sector purges, and AI displacement in entry-level roles, weighed on employment.

The weakness has strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut at the 16–17 September meeting, but fiscal instability, trade frictions, and falling consumer confidence raise the risk of deeper job losses later in the year.

UK 30-Year Gilt Yields Hit 27-Year High Amid Inflation and Fiscal Concerns

30-year gilt yields reached a 27-year high of 5.8% driven by a mix of global and domestic UK pressures, before moderating slightly downwards. Globally, a US tariff ruling created uncertainty, which worsened existing inflation fears and pushed up bond yields worldwide.

Domestically in the UK, inflation above the BOE’s 2.0% target, weak demand for new gilts, and the prospect of future tax hikes all contributed to investors demanding a greater risk premium for holding long-dated UK bonds.

This increase in yields has led to renewed worries about potential increases in borrowing and debt-service costs for the UK government, as well as reduced government spending or tax hikes should bond yields continue to rise.

Domestic Events

NNPC, TotalEnergies, and Sapetro Seal Landmark Deepwater Deal in Niger Delta

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd has signed a production-sharing contract with TotalEnergies and South Atlantic Petroleum (Sapetro) for two Niger Delta deepwater blocks, PPL 2000 and 2001. TotalEnergies will operate with an 80.0% stake and Sapetro 20.0%, under terms that include signature and output-based production bonuses.

This is the first PSC to cover both crude oil and gas and the first deepwater licence granted to an international oil company in over a decade, reflecting renewed investor confidence after the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and Nigeria’s drive to unlock offshore reserves.

The agreement marks the return of IOCs to deepwater, and possibly opening the way for fresh investment and activity. If successful, new blocks could help Nigeria meet production targets, narrow the gap between budgeted and actual output, boost foreign exchange inflows, and deliver community development benefits through PIA provisions.

BPE Unveils Plans to Privatise 91 SOEs and List Power Firms on NGX

Nigeria’s Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) has announced plans to privatise 91 state-owned enterprises and to list two electricity distribution companies and one generation company on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) via IPOs, marking the first such listings in the power sector.

The decision reflects government efforts to deepen market-driven reforms, raise non-oil revenues, and promote transparency and job creation, while also building on funds already raised through concessions such as Zungeru Hydropower and Afam III Fast Power.

If successful, the listings could broaden domestic capital market participation in the power sector, attract private investment, and improve service efficiency and delivery.

Nigeria, China Seal $2bn Deal to Boost Marine and Blue Economy

Nigeria and China have reaffirmed their partnership on marine and blue economy development, agreeing on zero tariffs for Nigerian aquaculture exports and a USD2.0bn investment to expand vessel ownership and seafarer training.

The deal builds on projects such as the Lekki Deep Seaport, reflecting China’s aim to secure supply chains and Nigeria’s push to diversify non-oil exports and strengthen maritime capacity.

The arrangement lowers trade barriers for aquaculture producers, opens access to China’s consumer market, and provides financing to address deficits in shipping and manpower. Additionally, it signals new opportunities in ports, fisheries, and logistics tied to Nigeria’s extensive coastline.

If implemented effectively, the partnership could create jobs, increase foreign exchange inflows, and position Nigeria as a regional maritime hub.

Dangote Refinery Makes First Gasoline Export to the United States

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has exported its first gasoline cargo to the United States, a milestone in its push beyond Africa. The Gemini Pearl departed Lekki port on 26 August with about 300,000 barrels bound for New York and New Jersey, under a private bilateral deal rather than an open market tender.

Since starting gasoline output in September 2024, Dangote has aimed to meet Nigeria’s 300,000 b/d demand but has steadily expanded exports across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Exports reached 90,000 b/d in June 2025 before outages at the residue fluid catalytic cracker curbed volumes.

This US shipment highlights the refinery’s drive to diversify markets even as it faces political pressure to keep supply local under the naira-for-crude swap. With higher sulfur tolerance than Europe, the US offers a strong fit for Dangote fuel and could reshape West African trade flows.

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