Blog Single

Global Macro Highlights

U.S. GDP Grows 3.3% in Q2 2025, Powered by AI-Driven Investments

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. GDP expanded 3.3% in Q2:2025 (vs. 3.0% in Q2 and a 0.5% contraction in Q1). This was supported by stronger business and consumer activity. Real Gross Domestic Income advanced 4.8% (vs. 4.6% in Q1), while business investment accelerated to 5.7% (from 1.9% initially), driven largely by AI-related spending. Intellectual property investment surged 12.8%, and equipment investment was revised up to 7.4% (vs. 4.8% prior). However, the unemployment rate remains at 4.2% and may trend higher near term.

The Fed has maintained its policy rate at 4.2–4.5% since December, and we expect this stance to continue at the September FOMC, with inflation above FED’s target but labour market fragility and tariff headwinds limiting the scope for rate cuts.

Kenya’s Inflation Rises to 4.5% in August, Still Within CBK’s Target Band

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation rose to 4.5% YoY in August 2025 (vs. 4.1% in July). Inflation grew by 0.3% on a MoM basis from 0.1%). The uptick was mainly driven by higher costs in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+8.3%), Transport (+4.4%), and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+0.8%) over the year.

Despite the uptick, inflation remains within the Central Bank of Kenya’s 2.5–7.5% medium-term target band. This could mean further rate cuts considering that the bank recently cut rate by 25.0 basis points to 9.5.

Global Equities Market

Weekly Performance of Major Global Indices

Domestic Events

Nigeria’s Oil Output Hits 1.7mbpd in July, Meets OPEC Quota but Trails Budget Benchmark

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), oil production averaged 1.7mn bpd in July 2025 (1.5mn bpd crude oil, 0.2mn bpd condensates), marking a +9.9% YoY increase from 1.6mn bpd in July 2024 (1.3mn crude, 0.2mn condensates). On a monthly basis, output rose 0.9% MoM from 1.7mn bpd in June (1.5mn crude, 0.2mn condensates). Peak daily production in July reached 1.8mn bpd, while the monthly low stood at 1.7mn bpd. This represents the third instance in 2025 (January, June, and July) that Nigeria has met its OPEC crude quota of 1.5mn bpd, and the highest level in six months, though still below the 1.7mn bpd recorded in January.

We expect this increased levels to improve crude export earnings which will provide more FX inflows. However, this level is still below the production level of 2.1mn bpd that the national budget was built on.

CBN Mandates ISO 20022 Migration, Geo-Tagging of POS Terminals to Boost Transaction Integrity

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), all banks, mobile money operators, and licensed payment service providers are mandated to migrate to the ISO 20022 payment messaging standard and geo-tag all POS terminals nationwide. Currently, most POS transactions rely on ISO 8583, which only records transaction amount, card, and timestamp. By contrast, ISO 20022 will capture richer details, including payer and payee information, merchant identifiers, and purpose codes. The directive also requires POS terminals to be geo-tagged, ensuring each device is tied to a single merchant location.

From a regulatory standpoint, the measures are designed to curb fraud, reduce money laundering risks, and enhance financial integrity through improved data analytics and traceability of transactions.

Dangote, Ethiopia Partner on $ Fertiliser Complex to Boost Food Security and Exports

Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) have signed a shareholder agreement to build a urea fertiliser complex in Gode, Ethiopia, with Dangote holding 60.0% and EIH 40.0%. The plant, expected to produce 3.0mn metric tons annually within 40 months, will make Ethiopia one of the top five global fertiliser producers.

The project includes gas pipelines from Hilal and Calub reserves, plus logistics and export facilities, cutting Ethiopia’s USD 1.0bn annual fertiliser import bill. It is set to boost food security, raise farm incomes, and generate FX from exports, while also strengthening energy independence. For Dangote, it cements leadership in Africa’s fertiliser sector, with regional benefits for East African trade and agricultural productivity.

AccessCorp, GTCO, FCMB Drive Market Shifts with Bold Strategic Moves

ACCESSCORP announced the appointment of Innocent Ike as Group Managing Director effective August 29, 2025, succeeding Bolaji Agede. The stock saw heightened activity with 102.18mn shares traded, closing down 2.8% at NGN26.5 from NGN27.0

GTCO successfully raised NGN504.03bn, combining a USD105.0mn London Stock Exchange listing (2.3bn shares) and a NGN209.4bn NGX offering (4.7bn shares). This makes GTCO the first West African bank dual-listed on NGX and LSE, ensuring compliance with minimum capital requirements for international banks. Meanwhile, FCMB confirmed plans for a fresh equity raise, following its NGN147.5bn issuance in 2024, aimed at strengthening capital ahead of regional expansion.

Equities Market – Sectorial Performance

Weekly Performance of Sectorial Indices

Stocks Top Picks for the Week

Fixed Income Opportunities for the week