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Global Macro Highlights

U.K. Inflation Surges, Rate Cuts Face Roadblocks

U.K inflation rose to a 12-month high of 3.80% YoY in July 2025 (vs 3.60% in June). MoM prices grew 0.10% (vs 0.30%), while core inflation edged to 3.80% from 3.70%. The rise was driven by transport costs, with airfares up 30.20%, plus higher food and beverage prices (beef, chocolate, instant coffee, orange juice). Communication costs accelerated, and services inflation climbed to 5% from 4.70%, showing persistent domestic pressures.

The Bank of England is expected to hold rates in September. Though it cut by 25bps to 4.00% at the last meeting, July’s stronger inflation limits scope for further easing. Seasonal travel demand added to the rise, but persistent core and services inflation signal elevated pressures.

Japan Balances Growth, Inflation, and BOJ Rate Risks

Japan’s inflation declined in July, with core inflation easing to 3.10% (vs 3.30%), its lowest since March, stabilising rice prices. Food inflation (ex-fresh food) stayed high at 8.30%, while “core-core” inflation held at 3.40%, keeping pressure on the BOJ. The economy grew 0.30% QoQ in Q2, supported by net exports and a U.S. tariff cut to 15.00%, though July exports fell amid trade tensions.

Looking ahead, easing inflation from subsidies and stable rice prices may open room for a BOJ hike, but higher rates risk curbing spending and weakening the Yen, hurting exports.

South Africa’s Inflation Rises, But SARB Maintains Rate Pause Outlook

South Africa’s headline inflation rose to 3.50% YoY in July (vs. 3.00% in June), the highest in ten months, driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.70% vs. 5.10%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.60% vs. 4.40%), and restaurants and hotels (3.00% vs. 2.00%). Transport costs fell more slowly (-1.70% vs. -3.30%) as fuel prices eased less sharply (-5.50% vs. -11.20%). Core inflation inched up to 3.00% from 2.90%, while monthly CPI surged 0.90%, the steepest since February.

Despite the uptick, inflation remains within the SARB’s 3.00–6.00% band, supporting its easing cycle after three rate cuts this year, most recently to 7.00%. Looking ahead, food and fuel pressures may keep inflation near the upper band, but with core inflation contained, the SARB is expected to hold rates in September while monitoring commodities and FX.

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Domestic Events

Nigeria’s Reserves Cross $40bn, Boosting Naira Stability

Nigeria’s FX reserves hit a near four-year high of USD41.00bn in August (vs USD39.54bn in early August, USD37.30bn in July), averaging USD81.00mn daily gains on stronger oil receipts, non-oil inflows, and portfolio investments. This boosts the CBN’s capacity to defend the naira, absorb shocks, and lift investor confidence.Looking ahead, reserves are expected to stay above USD40bn, supporting exchange rate stability, investor confidence, and broader macroeconomic resilience.

Nigeria Scraps 5% Telecom Duty, Boosting Digital Growth

During the week, Nigeria’s government removed the 5% excise duty on telecom services, easing cost pressures on 172 million subscribers and boosting digital sector growth. The move enables telecoms to expand infrastructure, improve service delivery, and drive innovation, while also enhancing competition, transparency, and consumer protection.

Going Forward, the reform is expected to accelerate adoption of AI, IoT, and remote sensing, creating new opportunities for digital inclusion. Over time, it could attract investment, raise service quality, and strengthen Nigeria’s telecom industry as a globally competitive growth driver.

Champion Breweries Secures Bullet Brand to Boost Growth

Champion Breweries Plc (CHAMPION) has entered  an agreement to acquire the Bullet brand of ready-to-drink (RTD) alcoholic and energy beverages from Sun Mark International. The deal, structured as an asset carve-out and pending regulatory approval, includes the transfer of Bullet’s intellectual property and brand assets into a newly incorporated Netherlands-based entity, where Champion will hold majority ownership.

Bullet has a strong footprint across 14 African markets, with Bullet Black leading Nigeria’s RTD segment and Bullet Blue among the top six energy drink brands. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Champion’s earnings profile by expanding distribution synergies, boosting FX income, and accelerating growth through product innovation.

Going Forward, the transaction signals Champion Breweries’ shift toward portfolio diversification beyond beer, with management highlighting the potential of functional and non-caffeinated beverages to capture shifting consumer preferences and drive long-term growth

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