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Global Macro Highlights

U.S. Inflation Climbs to 2.7% in June Amid Rising Shelter and Healthcare Costs

The U.S. headline inflation as reported by the bureau of statistics rose by 2.7% YoY in June 2025 (vs. 2.4% in May). The uptick in inflation was primarily driven by core inflation which increased by 2.9% YoY, due to higher shelter, healthcare, and household furnishing and operations prices. Food inflation rose by 3.0% (vs 2.9% in May 2025) driven by the increase in meat, poultry, fish and eggs. Conversely, energy inflation declined by 3.5% YoY. On a MoM the headline inflation increased by 0.3%, buoyed by elevated shelter prices. With the return of price pressures, we expect the feds to hold-on on cutting rates.

UK Inflation Hits 15-Month High at 3.6% in June, Fueled by Transport and Food Costs

According to the UK office for national statistics, UK inflation rate rose to a fifteen month high of 3.6% in June 2025. The surge in June’s inflation was primarily driven by the uptick in transportation which resulted in the rise of core inflation to 3.7% (vs. 3.5% in May 2025). Meanwhile, food inflation rose for the third consecutive month by 4.50% in June, driven by primarily higher beef prices. Looking ahead, the bank of England is expected to delay cutting rates as inflation is still above the 2% target.

China’s Economy Grows by 5.2% in Q2 2025, Boosted by Industry and Retail Stimulus

China reported a GDP growth of 5.20% in Q2:2025, a slight slowdown from the previous quarter. This performance was driven by the secondary industry as industrial output rose significantly during the quarter (+5.80% and +6.80% in May and June respectively). The tertiary industry maintained it’s growth momentum with the retail sailed rising by 5.00%, driven by the stimulus program offered by the government. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector grew moderately by 3.70%. We expect continued expansion in China’s economy driven by elevated global demand and a slight increase in domestic consumption buoyed by government stimulus program.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Slows for Third Month Despite Food and Core Price Pressures

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation eased for the third consecutive month to 22.2% YoY in June 2025 from 23.0% in May. Headline inflation slowed down despite the uptick in food and core inflation. Food inflation rose for the first time in the year to  22.0% YoY(vs. 21.2% in May) driven by higher prices of food produce like pepper, tomatoes, meat, and plantain flour. Core inflation edged higher to 22.8% YoY and this can be attributed to elevated transportation, information and communication. On a month-on-month basis, headline, food and core inflation rose to 1.68% MoM, 3.3% MoM, and 2.5% MoM respectively from 1.5%, 2.2%, and 1.1% in May 2025.

Nigeria’s Oil Output Hits 2025 High as Security Boosts Production

According to the NUPRC, crude oil production including condensates increased by 13.61% YoY to 1.70mbpd in June 2025 (vs. 1.65mbpd in May), the highest since January. This improvement can be attributed to enhanced security measures led by the NNPC in major oil pipelines particularly the Forcados terminal This supported the increase in oil output.  Notably, crude oil production in June met OPEC’s quota for the second time in 2025, with crude oil production asides condensates stood at 1.51mbpd Looking ahead, we expect sustained improvement in oil production, as security measures in oil producing regions is heightened.

UBA Launches ₦160bn Rights Issue to Meet CBN’s Recapitalization Mandate

United Bank for Africa (UBA) has announced plans to raise capita through a right issue of 3.2bn new ordinary shares to existing shareholders. This offer is priced at NGN50.0 per share and it’ll be issued on the basis of one new ordinary shares for every thirteen existing shares. This capital raise is intended to help UBA meet the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) minimum capital requirement for international banks inline with the ongoing recapitalization exercise. If successful, this capital raise will increase the banks share capital which will help increase business operations and support more expansion opportunities across Africa.

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