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Global Macro Highlights

U.S.–China Strike New Trade Deal Balancing Tariffs with Strategic Concessions

The U.S and China reached a new trade deal framework aimed at de-escalating the ongoing trade tensions. Under the deal, the U.S. will impose tariffs of up to 55% on Chinese imports (combining the 10% baseline tariff on most imports, a 20% penalty linked to fentanyl-related accusations, and the existing 25% tariffs from Trump’s first term), while China will apply a 10.00% tariff on U.S. goods. In return, China will remove export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets (essential inputs for U.S. tech and defense industries), while the U.S. will maintain Chinese students access to American universities

U.S. Inflation Rebounds to 2.4% in May Amid Rising Food and Transport Costs

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, headline inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 2.4% YoY in May, reversing its three-month disinflation trend. This uptick was driven by higher food (2.9% YoY vs 2.8% YoY in the previous month), and transport prices (2.8% YoY vs 2.5% YoY). However, energy prices sustained its deceleration (-3.5% YoY vs -3.7% YoY), while core inflation remained at 2.8% YoY. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index edged up by 0.1% (vs 0.2% in April)

UK Economy Hit Hard in April: Exports Slump and Services Drag Growth to -0.3%

According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy contracted by 0.3% MoM in April 2025, the sharpest decline since October 2023, driven by a steep fall in exports to the U.S, following the imposition of new tariffs. The services sector declined by 0.4% MoM, weighed down by a slump in real estate and legal activities after the expiration of a temporary property tax relief. Manufacturing also weakened due to plant closures and reduced car production, although a 0.9% MoM uptick in construction helped cushion the downturn.

China Posts Fourth Month of Deflation Amid Trade Tensions and Weak Demand

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China recorded a deflation rate of 0.1% YoY in May, marking the fourth month of deflation, highlighting challenges from ongoing trade risks with the US, sluggish domestic demand, and concerns over job stability. This downward trend was driven by further drop in transport (-4.3% YoY vs -3.9% YoY) and food prices (-0.4% YoY vs -0.2% YoY). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to a four-month high of 0.6% YoY. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices dipped by 0.2% (vs +0.1% in April).

China Grants Tariff-Free Access to All African Countries in Landmark Trade Shift

China has decided to eliminate all tariffs on imports from African countries which marks a major step in redefining its trade relationship with the continent. Unlike earlier policies that favored only the least developed nations, this new approach extends duty-free access to all 53 countries, including middle-income economies like Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, allowing a wider range of goods, particularly higher-value exports, to enter the Chinese market more competitively.

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Domestic Events

Nigeria Records ₦5.2trn Trade Surplus in Q1 2025 Amid Export Gains and Slower Imports

Nigeria’s total foreign trade value rose slightly to NGN36.0trn in Q1:2025 (+0.4% QoQ and +6.0% YoY), supported mainly by stronger exports. Total exports increased to NGN20.6trn (+2.9% QoQ, +7.4% YoY), driven by crude oil exports (63% of total exports) and a 10% QoQ rise in manufactured goods, signaling early gains in non-oil diversification. Also, imports declined by 7.0% QoQ to NGN15.4trn (still up 4.6% YoY), likely reflecting FX constraints, elevated interest rates, and lower petroleum products. As a result, Nigeria posted a trade surplus of NGN5.2trn, down 20.1% YoY but up 51% QoQ, highlighting ongoing reliance on oil exports and structural import demand.

Nigeria’s Oil Output Drops to 1.66mb/d in May Amid Terminal Disruptions and Ongoing Sector Challenges

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) declined by 1.5% MoM to 1.66 mb/d in May, reversing the modest gains recorded in the previous month (1.68 mb/d). The decline was largely driven by reduced output from the Forcados (-13.7% MoM), Odudu (-10.2% MoM), and Bonny (-4.2% MoM) terminals, which offset gains from Brass (+38.2% MoM), Qua Iboe (+14.3% MoM), Agbami (+7.5% MoM), Escravos (+6.2% MoM), and Tulja-Okwuibome (+2.6% MoM). While investment in the sector is gradually recovering, persistent underinvestment continues to constrain production efficiency and contributes to output volatility.

Nigeria’s $5bn Oil-Backed Loan with Saudi Aramco Stalls Amid Falling Oil Prices and Production Shortfalls

Nigeria’s USD5bn oil-backed loan with Saudi Aramco has been put on hold, primarily due to the sharp drop in global oil prices, which has made the terms of the deal more demanding. With Brent crude now around USD65 per barrel, and Nigeria producing well below its 2mbpd target, the country is struggling to meet those terms, especially as much of its output is already tied to existing debt. It is expected that this delay will constrain short-term liquidity but could encourage a shift toward more sustainable financing as the country works to boost oil production and rebuild fiscal resilience.

Corporate Shake-Up: NOTORE Suspended Ahead of Delisting, Aliko Dangote Steps Down as Dangote Sugar Chair

On the corporate scene, following regulatory approval for its voluntary exit, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has suspended trading in Notore Chemical Industries Plc (NOTORE) shares ahead of the company’s planned delisting. Also, Aliko Dangote stepped down as Chairman of Dangote Sugar Refinery after 20 years, marking a significant leadership transition. Following a comprehensive selection and transition process, the Board has appointed Independent Non-Executive Director Arnold Ekpe as the new Chairman.

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